Our best predictions for Sunday afternoon as these AFC giants battle in Buffalo.
The Cincinnati Bengals take on the Buffalo Bills in what is expected to be the most exciting matchup of the Divisional Round. These two teams met in Week 17 of the regular season, but the game never finished as Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest and the game was canceled. Since then, the Bengals stomped on the Ravens twice and the Bills defeated a pair of AFC East rivals in Buffalo. All eyes will be on the battle between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, and our expert analyzed this matchup and has found his favorite Bengals vs. Bills player props and a pick against the spread. Make sure to sign up at FanDuel Sportsbook to get $150 bonus bets!
Bengals vs. Bills player props featuring Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs & Joe Burrow
This Divisional Round matchup features three of the most dangerous offensive threats in the AFC. Those threats being the quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, and Allen’s favorite target, Stefon Diggs. The battle between quarterbacks will be won by the passer who makes the fewest mistakes, as one turnover could tip the scale in the other team’s favor. Our expert took a look at the Bengals vs. Bills player props and found a best bet for Allen, Diggs, and Burrow.
Josh Allen under 47.5 rushing yards (-114)
When Allen appeared to hurt his elbow in the middle of the regular season, that caused him to use his legs more to give his arm a break. He went over this total in 4 of the 5 games when he was dealing with the soreness, but Allen seems to be slightly better now which has caused him to remain in the pocket more. Allen has failed to reach 48 rushing yards in 5 of the last 6 games, including running just 4 times last week against the Dolphins. This game is expected to be close from kickoff to the final whistle, so that means Allen will likely be staying in the pocket more and finding ways to move the ball downfield, without using his legs.
Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (+105)
This line has excellent value considering Diggs has had 7 receptions in back-to-back games. We’ve seen Allen target Diggs consistently throughout the season, but in the last few weeks when the game has mattered, Allen fed Diggs more than ever. In Week 18 against New England, Diggs had 7 receptions for 104 yards. He followed that up with 7 receptions for 114 yards against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round.
In the second half against Miami last week, it became clear that Allen was looking to throw to Diggs whenever possible. The duo has exceptional chemistry, and when the game means something, Allen wants to get the ball to his best receiver.
Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125)
The Bengals' offensive line is expected to be without 2 starters and ranks 31st in the league for pass blocking. Burrow, however, has experienced this before in his young career. He has the third-highest completion rate under pressure among qualified quarterbacks, with 9 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. When needed, he can pick up yards off the ground and move the pocket with his legs. Regarding the "paper mismatch" that many people are exaggerating, I'm not terribly concerned.
Burrow will need to throw the ball more quickly than normal, but I anticipate him to excel in the red zone where he's completed 24 of his 35 touchdown passes this year. He has thrown 2 or more passing touchdowns in 11/16 games this season, so back Burrow once more.
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Bengals vs. Bills spread and pick against the spread
Our expert’s best bet for Bengals vs. Bills is on the Bengals +5.5. The Buffalo Bills are getting ready to host the Cincinnati Bengals in this divisional round AFC playoff clash. Due to their respective teams' narrow victories in the Wild Card round, neither club appeared particularly dominant. They were both ugly victories, but after the Bills' game, I was even more worried about them. Therefore, I'm taking Cincinnati with the points. If Buffalo's ability to defeat 7th-round rookie Skylar Thompson at home by just three points doesn't raise red flags, I don't know what will.
Josh Allen had three turnovers and took seven sacks against Miami's blitz-heavy pass rush. And that was against a rather battered Dolphins defense. Buffalo just barely survived against a third-string quarterback who only averaged 4.9 yards per attempt and was 18 of 45. The Bengals, who are entering this game with a 9-game winning streak, have probably been playing the most reliable football in the NFL over the previous several months. For a club that is now riding a nine-game winning streak, they aren't receiving nearly enough respect.
The Bills have had a rather weak schedule in the last few weeks. They played the Patriots, Bears, Dolphins, Jets, Lions, and Browns in their final seven games. Only Miami made it to the playoffs of that grouping, and since Week 6 of the regular season, the Bills have faced just two playoff-bound opponents. One of those was the Dolphins, who they defeated at home by a score of three points, and the other was a loss to the Vikings. Cincinnati is more than capable of keeping this game close, so take the points with Burrow and the Bengals.
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Bengals vs. Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds available at Fanduel sportsbook
The game total for this matchup is nearly 50 points, indicating the oddsmakers expect a healthy amount of points. While field goals may happen several times, the majority of the scoring will likely be through touchdowns. The Bengals and Bills have elite weapons on offense alongside a top-tier quarterback, so each team should find the end zone a couple of times. Here are the odds for each teams’ anytime touchdown scorers courtesy of FanDuel.
Joe Mixon (+115)
Ja’Marr Chase (+125)
Tee Higgins (+200)
Hayden Hurst (+320)
Tyler Boyd (+330)
Samaje Perine (+390)
Joe Burrow (+550)
Stefon Diggs (+105)
Josh Allen (+140)
Devin Singletary (+155)
Gabriel Davis (+160)
Dawson Knox (+200)
James Cook (+210)
Isaiah McKenzie (+210)
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